\u968f\u7740\u901a\u80c0\u62c5\u5fe7\u518d\u6b21\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u8fd1\u671f\u5728\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u6001\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u4e8e\u672c\u5468\u53ec\u5f00\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u6b21\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5c06\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bf4\u660e\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd6\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u660e\u663e\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52bf\u4e00\u5ea6\u7f13\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u81ea2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u904f\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u57fa\u51c6\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent Crude\uff09\u4ef7\u683c\u5468\u56db\u7a81\u7834\u6bcf\u6876100\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b5\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6301\u7eed\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5efa\u8bbe\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n
\u591a\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20\u4ea4\u7ec7\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u8d70\u52bf\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u66f4\u4ee4\u5e02\u573a\u56f0\u60d1\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u59cb\u7ec8\u62d2\u7edd\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u4f5c\u51fa\u660e\u786e\u6307\u5f15\u3002\u5728\u672c\u5468\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u53ec\u5f00\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7a76\u7adf\u4f1a\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e94\u6b21\u7ef4\u6301\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u5206\u6b67\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5e76\u4e0d\u591a\u89c1\u3002\u7f57\u5207\u65af\u7279\u5927\u5b66\uff08University of Rochester\uff09\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u524d\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis\uff09\u884c\u957f\u7eb3\u62c9\u4e9a\u7eb3\u00b7\u79d1\u5207\u62c9\u79d1\u5854\uff08Narayana Kocherlakota\uff09\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u7ebf\u7535\u89c6\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u957f\u671f\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e00\u76f4\u523b\u610f\u907f\u514d\u900f\u9732\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u65e9\u5df2\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u653e\u5f03\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\u201d\uff08Forward Guidance\uff09\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u81ea2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u63d0\u524d\u4e86\u89e3\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u7b56\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u589e\u5f3a\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u62c5\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u52bf\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u52a8\u4ecd\u5145\u6ee1\u672a\u77e5\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u5c1a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u6253\u7834\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6c9f\u901a\u60ef\u4f8b\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u5728\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u8bef\u5224\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u79d1\u5207\u62c9\u79d1\u5854\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4f01\u4e1a\u66f4\u4e0d\u613f\u6269\u5927\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f01\u4e1a\u51cf\u5c11\u62db\u8058\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad\u672a\u6765\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u201c\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u6765\u3001\u539f\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u516c\u5f00\u8bb2\u8bdd\u8fc7\u4e8e\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u653f\u7b56\u6c9f\u901a\u6548\u679c\u3002\u8d22\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u8d44\u4ea7\u6807\u8bb0\uff08AssetMark\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u5e02\u573a\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u51ef\u9f50\u4e9a\u00b7\u585e\u7f2a\u5c14\uff08Keziah Samuel\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u62c6\u89e3\u5f97\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7ec6\u81f4\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5979\u5f00\u59cb\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c9f\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u5426\u8fd8\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u8fbe\u5230\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
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