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\u56fd\u571f\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u8d77\u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6848\u4ef6\u6d89\u53ca\u4e00\u9879\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u6cd5\u89c4\uff0c\u8be5\u6cd5\u89c4\u8d4b\u4e88\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u5728\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u516c\u6c11\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u5229\u540e\u679c\u201d\u65f6\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd8\u5728\u5229\u7528\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u7684\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u5341\u6240\u5927\u5b66\u8bc6\u522b\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u53bb\u5e74\u6218\u4e89\u793a\u5a01\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5b66\u751f\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4f17\u591a\u902e\u6355\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u201d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u57283\u670810\u65e5\u5173\u4e8e\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u9a6c\u54c8\u8302\u5fb7\u00b7\u54c8\u5229\u52d2\uff08Mahmoud Khalil\uff09\u6848\u4ef6\u7684\u5e16\u5b50\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u5168\u56fd\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u5b66\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u5b66\u751f\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u652f\u6301\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u53cd\u72b9\u592a\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u53cd\u7f8e\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bb9\u5fcd\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u201d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6559\u80b2\u90e8\u8fd8\u5728\u8c03\u67e560\u6240\u5927\u5b66\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u516b\u6240\u5e38\u6625\u85e4\u76df\u6821\u4e2d\u7684\u516d\u6240\u2014\u2014\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u72b9\u592a\u9a9a\u6270\u548c\u6b67\u89c6\u201d\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u653f\u5e9c\u524a\u5f31\u5927\u5b66\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u5e76\u975e\u65b0\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u79c1\u4e0b\u548c\u516c\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\u524a\u5f31\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u3002\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u6559\u6388\u3001\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5982\u4f55\u6b7b\u4ea1\u300b\u5408\u8457\u8005\u53f2\u8482\u6587\u00b7\u5217\u7ef4\u8328\u57fa\uff08Steven Levitsky\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7279\u522b\u9488\u5bf9\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u538b\u529b\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u719f\u6089\u3002\u201c\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u5e9c\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5de6\u7ffc\u8fd8\u662f\u53f3\u7ffc\u2014\u2014\u653b\u51fb\u5927\u5b66\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u201d\u5217\u7ef4\u8328\u57fa\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u4ece\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u7684\u4e4c\u6208\u00b7\u67e5\u97e6\u65af\u5230\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u7ef4\u514b\u6258\u00b7\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u96f7\u6770\u666e\u00b7\u5854\u4f0a\u666e\u00b7\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u8bd5\u56fe\u653b\u51fb\u3001\u524a\u5f31\u5e76\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u63a7\u5236\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u9762\u4e34\u79fb\u6c11\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6559\u804c\u5458\u5de5\u548c\u5b66\u751f
\n\u9a6c\u54c8\u8302\u5fb7\u00b7\u54c8\u5229\u52d2\uff08Mahmoud Khalil\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5df4\u52d2\u65af\u5766\u6d3b\u52a8\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6821\u56ed\u6297\u8bae\u4ee5\u8272\u5217-\u54c8\u9a6c\u65af\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5408\u6cd5\u6c38\u4e45\u5c45\u6c11\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u914d\u5076\uff0c\u4e09\u6708\u521d\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7ebd\u7ea6\u6821\u533a\u5916\u7684\u516c\u5bd3\u5916\u88ab\u79fb\u6c11\u5b98\u5458\u902e\u6355\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6307\u63a7\u8fd9\u4f4d\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u5df4\u52d2\u65af\u5766\u96be\u6c11\u662f\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u540c\u60c5\u8005\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u54c8\u9a6c\u65af\u5e76\u5728\u6821\u56ed\u5185\u5ba3\u4f20\u8be5\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u63d0\u4f9b\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u54c8\u5229\u52d2\u5426\u8ba4\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u63a7\u3002\u767d\u5bab\u5b98\u5458\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u54c8\u5229\u52d2\u5206\u53d1\u4e86\u5ba3\u4f20\u54c8\u9a6c\u65af\u7684\u4f20\u5355\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bf4\u6cd5\u88ab\u4ed6\u7684\u5f8b\u5e08\u5426\u8ba4\u3002\u54c8\u5229\u52d2\u7684\u5f8b\u5e08\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u5176\u4eb2\u52a0\u6c99\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u652f\u6301\u5df4\u52d2\u65af\u5766\u7684\u793a\u5a01\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u9488\u5bf9\u4ed6\uff0c\u4fb5\u72af\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u548c\u7b2c\u4e94\u4fee\u6b63\u6848\u6743\u5229\u3002\u672c\u5468\uff0c\u4e00\u540d\u6cd5\u5b98\u4e0b\u4ee4\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u6848\u4ef6\u4ece\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u65b0\u6cfd\u897f\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ecd\u88ab\u62d8\u7559\u5728\u8def\u6613\u65af\u5b89\u90a3\u5dde\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u6d77\u5173\u6267\u6cd5\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u5728\u529b\u5ea6\u548c\u8303\u56f4\u4e0a\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927
\n\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u7684\u5168\u9762\u653b\u51fb\u5728\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u5708\u5b50\u4e2d\u915d\u917f\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u65b0\u5b98\u5458\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8bda\u5b9e\u800c\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u653b\u51fb\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u201d\u4e09\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u8036\u9c81\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u6821\u53cb\u3001\u526f\u603b\u7edfJD\u00b7\u4e07\u65af\uff08JD Vance\uff09\u5728\u5411\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f1a\u8bae\u53d1\u8868\u6f14\u8bb2\u65f6\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u6559\u6388\u662f\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u65f6\u4efb\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u4ea8\u5229\u00b7\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u7684\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u8be5\u58f0\u660e\u88ab\u767d\u5bab\u79d8\u5bc6\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u5217\u7ef4\u8328\u57fa\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c06\u9ad8\u6821\u63cf\u7ed8\u6210\u7cbe\u82f1\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u8131\u79bb\u7fa4\u4f17\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u654c\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u524a\u5f31\u5176\u6559\u80b2\u4f7f\u547d\u3002\u201c\u5927\u5b66\u5f88\u96be\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u5927\u5b66\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u5f02\u8bae\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\u5206\u6b67\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u53e6\u7c7b\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u524d\u6821\u957f\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u65af\u00b7B\u00b7\u5fb7\u514b\u65af\uff08Nicholas B. Dirks\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u5b66\u672c\u8eab\u901a\u8fc7\u8868\u8fbe\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u654c\u610f\uff0c\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u5927\u95e8\u3002\u201c\u5728\u56f4\u7ed5\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u6f14\u8bb2\u8005\u7684\u5371\u673a\u548c\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6821\u56ed\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5192\u72af\u6027\u8a00\u8bba\u548c\u6240\u8c13\u5fae\u4fb5\u72af\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u626d\u66f2\u4e86\u8a00\u8bba\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u5b66\u800c\u975e\u653f\u6cbb\u53f3\u7ffc\u662f\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e00\u4fee\u6b63\u6848\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u201d\u5fb7\u514b\u65af\u672c\u6708\u5728\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\u4e0a\u5199\u9053\u3002\u5fb7\u514b\u65af\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u5927\u5b66\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u5047\u8bbe\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u81ea\u52a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u5de5\u4f5c\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u201c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u79ef\u6781\u4e3b\u52a8\u5730\u4f20\u8fbe\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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\uff08\u56fe\u7247\u6e90\u4e8eCNN\uff09<\/p>\n
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