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\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c2\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6301\u7eed\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u770b\u4f3c\u7a33\u5065\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0cPantheon Macroeconomics\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u585e\u7f2a\u5c14\u00b7\u6c64\u59c6\u5e03\u65af\uff08Samuel Tombs\uff09\u5728\u7ed9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u201c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u53d8\u524d\u7684\u65e7\u65f6\u4ee3\u666f\u8c61\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f\u8096\u6069\u00b7\u65af\u5948\u65af\uff08Sean Snaith\uff093\u67087\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e94\uff09\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u5e73\u9759\u524d\u7684\u5e73\u9759\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u98ce\u66b4\u524d\u7684\u5e73\u9759\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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\n\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8054\u90a6\u88c1\u5458\u3001\u8d44\u91d1\u524a\u51cf\u3001\u5173\u7a0e\u53cd\u590d\u548c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u9a71\u9010\u7b49\u91cd\u5927\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3e\u63aa\u5df2\u6ce2\u53ca\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u52a8\u6447\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5e76\u89e6\u53d1\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u6548\u7387\u90e8\u95e8\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u5bf92\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u6708\u5ea6\u5c31\u4e1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5b89\u6392\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5206\u79bb\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c3\u67087\u65e5\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4ecd\u6697\u793a\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u672c\u6708\u51cf\u5c11\u4e861\u4e07\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d3500\u4e2a\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u90ae\u653f\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n
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FwdBonds\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u9c81\u666e\u57fa\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u65b0\u603b\u7edf\u4e0a\u4efb\u540e\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d77\u6b65\u7f13\u6162\u3002\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u89e3\u96c7\u8054\u90a6\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u627f\u5305\u5546\u5fc5\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002\u201d\u6839\u636eChallenger, Gray & Christmas\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u548c\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u60c5\u51b5\u5c06\u6076\u5316\u30022\u6708\u4efd\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u6570\u91cf\u8d85\u8fc717.2\u4e07\uff0c\u4e3a\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u7b2c12\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n
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\n\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u884c\u4e1a\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6700\u5927\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7ee7\u7eed\u8868\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e865.2\u4e07\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e25\u91cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u8054\u90a6\u652f\u6301\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u62e8\u6b3e\uff09\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u5a01\u80c1\uff1a\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6b63\u5728\u6536\u7d27\u8054\u90a6\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u5ef6\u957f\u51762017\u5e74\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n
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\n\u7279\u6717\u666e3\u67087\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e94\uff09\u5439\u6367\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a2\u6708\u4efd\u589e\u52a0\u4e861\u4e07\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u692d\u5706\u5f62\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u53d1\u8868\u8bb2\u8bdd\u65f6\uff0c\u65c1\u8fb9\u653e\u7740\u4e00\u5f20\u67f1\u72b6\u56fe\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8fd91\u4e07\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e0e\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u8fc7\u53bb12\u4e2a\u6708\u635f\u5931\u768411.1\u4e07\u4e2a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c062\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5176\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u53ca\u6269\u5927\u7f8e\u56fd\u5de5\u5382\u548c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u8ba1\u5212\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u96c7\u4e3b\u65f6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u4e86\u3002\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e94\u5468\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e94\u5468\u52a0\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4ed8\u8bf8\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb63\u67087\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e94\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u548c\u5efa\u7b51\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u589e\u957f\u662f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u8d39\u7f57\u5229\uff08Michael Feroli\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u201c\u5728\u9884\u671f\u5173\u7a0e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u524d\u7f6e\u9700\u6c42\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
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