\uff08\u56fe\u7247\u6e90\u4e8eCNN\uff09\u8bb8\u591a\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u66fe\u9884\u6d4b2023\u5e74\u5c06\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6253\u51fb\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u9677\u5165\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6b63\u5728\u8e29\u5239\u8f66\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c06\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u611f\u5230\u538c\u5026\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5c06\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd2023\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u7406\u7531\u6b63\u5728\u74e6\u89e3\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u592a\u5f3a\u52b2\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u62db\u8058\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u5730\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u96c7\u4e3b\u57285\u6708\u4efd\u589e\u52a0\u4e8633.9\u4e07\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u4efb\u4f55\u4e3b\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\u673a\u6784\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57282019\u5e74\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\u90fd\u591a\uff0c\u800c2019\u5e74\u662f\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u7a46\u8fea\u5206\u6790\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9a6c\u514b\u00b7\u8d5e\u8fea\uff08Mark Zandi\uff09\u57286\u67082\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e94\uff09\u7684\u7535\u8bdd\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u5371\u673a\u3001\u52a0\u606f\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u6709\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u3002\u201d\u8d5e\u8fea\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe12023\u5e74\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u201c\u5c31\u4eca\u5e74\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u770b\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c0f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u5fc5\u987b\u8fc5\u901f\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u8d3e\u65af\u6c40\u00b7\u6c83\u5c14\u5f17\u65af\uff08Justin Wolfers\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ca1\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5e94\u5bf92023\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u6b64\u706b\u70ed\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u672a\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u521b\u9020\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u2018\u8870\u9000\u2019\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u662f\u8352\u8c2c\u7684\u3002\u201d5\u6708\u4efd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u6fc0\u589e33.9\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd8\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u8c03\u4e86\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u6570\u636e\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff08Bureau of Labor Statistics\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u589e\u52a0\u4e8621.7\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c4\u6708\u4efd\u589e\u52a0\u4e8629.4\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e0d\u4e45\u524d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u9884\u6d4b\u76f8\u53bb\u751a\u8fdc\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u5929\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u5c06\u57282023\u5e74\u521d\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u6bcf\u6708\u5c06\u51cf\u5c11\u7ea617.5\u4e07\u4e2a\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u5168\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5931\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u662f\u786e\u5b9e\u76f8\u4e92\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u884c\u4e1a\u3002Challenger Gray & Christmas\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u4eba\u6570\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e24\u756a\u3002\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u88ab\u89e3\u96c7\u7684\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u91cd\u65b0\u5c31\u4e1a\u30026\u67082\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e94\uff09\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u5b9e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f8\u4e92\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5bb6\u5ead\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5bb6\u5ead\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u8f83\u590d\u6742\u3002\u5bb6\u5ead\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4e860.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u81ea2020\u5e744\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u5927\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e53\u5e74\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u6c83\u5c14\u5f17\u65af\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4ecd\u6781\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ec5\u4e3a3.5%\u3002\u4ed6\u5f62\u5bb9\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53cd\u9a73\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u5e74\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u201d\u6c83\u5c14\u5f17\u65af\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u8fc5\u731b\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6570\u636e\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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\u8d5e\u8fea\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u52302024\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u7387\u5c06\u5347\u81f3\u201c\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u9ad8\u201d50%\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\u8870\u9000\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u6216\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u3002RSM\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e54\u00b7\u5e03\u9c81\u7d22\u62c9\u65af\uff08Joe Brusuelas\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u53ea\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ee7\u7eed\u6bcf\u6708\u521b\u902020\u4e07\u4e2a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u201d\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\uff08Morgan Stanley\uff09\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5b83\u544a\u8bc9\u5ba2\u6237\uff0c5\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u201c\u7ee7\u7eed\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\u201d\u3002\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u6c83\u5c14\u5f17\u65af\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u786c\u7740\u9646\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u201c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u76f8\u5f53\u9065\u8fdc\u201d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u7099\u624b\u53ef\u70ed\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u8ba9\u4e0d\u7740\u9646\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5feb\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u52a0\u5927\u5239\u8f66\u529b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5192\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a2024\u5e74\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n
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